Trump, Haaland or Bad Bunny: Who Will Top Google in 2026?

What do Bad Bunny, Erling Haaland and President Donald Trump have in common? Hint: it’s not an affinity for McDonald's.

Instead, Haaland, Trump and Bad Bunny are all in the running to earn the #1 spot on Google’s Year in Search for 2026.

Hitting #1 on Google doesn't mean that you are the most famous or liked person. However, it means that you have generated the most curiosity and have created the largest increase in search interest ("trending") compared with the previous year.

There could be many reasons behind this. One could achieve the status of a popular search topic because of exceptional sporting performance, a scandal, or shocking news. Currently, in the second half of 2026, the prediction markets are already trading on who will win Google Year in Search.

How prediction markets work

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares linked to real-life events. The market's collective estimate of probable outcomes is reflected in the price of contracts; it rises with the demand for and prices of a "Yes" answer and goes down with the demand for and price of a "No" answer. 

As of July 20, Kalshi is the leader in this sector with plenty of trading and considerable open interest in a wide variety of event contracts. At the same time, Polymarket is experiencing a good level of activity, while Coinbase has joined the space with its partnership with Kalshi and is planning to launch its prediction markets in all 50 states. 

The three main players are in very tight competition: 

Bad Bunny and Trump spout prices of 16% and 15%, respectively, for "Yes" predictions,. Haaland comes next with 11%. The "No" predictions have much higher odds - 84¢, 86¢, and 92¢, respectively.

It should be noted that this is dependent on the "People" classification of Google and not on "Searches" or "News." The emphasis is put on the rise of search inquiries and not on their overall number. The market will close when Google publishes its data for 2026, which is expected on December 31.

The case for Erling Haaland

At the age of just 25, Erling Haaland is living a moment that cannot be overstated in any way. The Norwegian football player played in the 2026 World Cup, where interest in his name has soared. As per Google Trends data, the number of searches for the name has increased by 900% compared to last year. This is what sports-driven search mania looks like. 

His athleticism coupled with an intimidating yet charming personality helps him in being one of the most popular men in the world. Numbers tell everything: his number of followers on Instagram has increased by more than 12 million since the beginning of the World Cup, with Google even creating a special Vikings-themed search animation. 

The crucial question is whether he will keep this trend going in the future.

The case for Bad Bunny

To be honest, I’d never even heard of Bad Bunny (my bad), but his most searched, and defining moment was his performance at the Apple Music Halftime Show during the NFL Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots 

As a world-renowned artist, he is able to produce consistent search interest thanks to an ongoing series of events. He’s currently sitting on an 16% stake in Kalshi, just a hair above Trump, and his 2026 "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS" World Tour is the most searched tour of the year, which is confirmed with a monthly volume of an average of 281,000 searches. 

A new album release, tour announcement, or record-breaking performance can trigger a significant amount of searches. His influence reaches many different cultures and languages, which gives him an advantage in terms of popularity and searches globally. 

He’s also the first Latin artist to have more than 100 entries in the Billboard Hot 100.

The case for Donald Trump and the rest of the field

Donald Trump is the ultimate wild card. He is a political figure who doesn't just generate news; he is the news. Every policy announcement, legal development, or controversial statement sends millions of people frantically searching Google to see what he did next. 

In Kalshi, Trump is nearly tied for the lead at 15%, with several other candidates trailing behind but still in the running. 

The field behind him includes several intriguing names. Elon Musk sits at 5% with a "Yes" price of 9¢; his constant presence in tech and culture makes him a perennial contender. 

Savannah Guthrie, the "Today" show anchor, is an unexpected dark horse at 6% following recent media attention following the disappearance of her mother. 

Long shots like Billie Eilish, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Sam Altman, Timothée Chalamet, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy all sit at 1% with 1¢ "Yes" prices, which is an acknowledgment that a single news event could suddenly make any of them the most searched person on Earth.

The "Other" contract exists precisely because this list has been upended before by unexpected events—tragedies, scandals, or viral sensations that no one saw coming. That uncertainty is what makes this market so compelling.

What the last 10 years actually tell us

An examination of Google's worldwide "People" list for the past ten years indicates the same trend. Almost every year, the position is held by a personality at the heart of a major news story, but not necessarily someone who is merely famous. The following is an overview of the person who held the title of No. 1 globally in the last decade.

Who will finish No. 1?

The category is difficult for several reasons. Not only has Trump managed to stay on top of this list in both 2016 and 2024, but he continues to generate some of the most outrageous headlines.

Haaland’s achievements, although significant, did happen during one tournament, so they risk losing significance. 

Bad Bunny’s position might not be as bad since entertainment people have made it to the top of this list twice in the last five years (Alec Baldwin in 2021 and Johnny Depp in 2022). 

What really makes this category unpredictable is the ‘Other’ contract - one unfortunate accident or a viral moment can change everything.

As of July 20, 2026, Callum Turner is not included in the Kalshi odds for this market but is a potential dark horse. He has generated considerable online searches due to his wedding to Dua Lipa and is the favorite among the bookmakers to be named the next James Bond. This means there is a chance he could even have a shot if an official Bond announcement is made.

The race to be #1 in Google's Year in Search 2026 is one of the most interesting stories we could think of. If the numbers are mixed, there surely should be one thing that stands true — the winner is going to be the person who will be dominating the world news at the most crucial time. I'm convinced it will be Trump, but considering how one viral moment can change everything, I won't be surprised if I end up being wrong.