NBA Targets Risky Bets. Will Kalshi, Polymarket Play Ball?

Ever since the evolution of same-game parlays (SGPs) and player prop bets, it's fair to say that leagues such as the NBA, NFL, and NHL have become increasingly vulnerable to players deliberately tanking to cash in on a poor game-day performance. 

Counterintuitive to the belief that athletes are always driven to win, the repetitive scandals that rocked the league have now forced the NBA's hand to implement changes. Yet, while partnered sportsbooks are cordially mandated to follow the league's latest directives, has the NBA just handed the prediction markets a golden ticket to lure in opportunistic sports bettors?

So What Sports Bets Are the NBA Banning?

According to the memo, the NBA has just instructed all of its authorized sportsbook partners -- including the likes of DraftKings and FanDuel -- to remove a shortlist of wagering markets ahead of the start of the season on October 20. 

Undoubtedly, the primary casualty of the league's edicts revolves around parlays relating to a combination of multiple unders markets on the same player. Because of this, punters can no longer attempt to profit from a player failing to hit lines such as their points, rebounds, and assist totals. Likewise, individual-player "first-of" markets, opening-tip bets and wagers on specified missed shots are also targeted in the October 16 circular.

Why Are These Bets Particularly Vulnerable?

Although a coordinated effort to throw an entire game isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility, the sheer number of people needed to be involved, along with the variables involved, makes it extremely difficult to execute. Yet, as the infamous 1915 British soccer scandal showed, the concept is neither new nor is it impossible to pull off. 

Nevertheless, while that may be harder to achieve in the modern game, one player opting to deliberately underperform can easily fly under the radar, a story all too familiar to NBA fans of late. 

You only need to look at former Raptors star Jontay Porter, who admitted to bowing out of a game early to ensure he hit certain performance-related under-markets, while Terry Rozier pleaded not guilty in federal court last year over a similar alleged scheme dating back to his time with the Hornets.

How the Other Leagues Are Clamping Down

The NFL has taken a more confrontational approach. In an October 8 Supreme Court filing, the league backed state oversight of sports prediction markets, warning that certain contracts could threaten the integrity of professional sports.

In doing so, it also pointed out that while many of its NFL sportsbook partners already follow a prohibited-wagers list, the door remains open for these loopholes to be exploited by insider trading on sports-related prediction markets.

In direct contrast, the NHL has taken an entirely different route here, as rather than challenging the prediction markets head-on, they chose to engage with them, having already partnered up with Kalshi and Polymarket in 2025. 

That collaborative approach offers an alternative to the NFL's confrontational strategy, although it's too early to determine which is more effective at protecting sporting integrity.

The Billion-Dollar Question Remains; Will the Prediction Markets Play Ball?

Now, let’s address prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi doesn’t currently offer all the markets the NBA is looking to ban but it does offer some similar ones. For instance, Kalshi offers NBA player-stat contracts that closely resemble traditional sportsbook props. For example, its October 20 market on Karl-Anthony Towns recording 12 or more rebounds allowed traders to take a NO position, effectively backing the under.

The platform also lists alternate rebound thresholds and offers combination markets. However, Kalshi's contracts include injury-related settlement protections, and it's unclear whether the exchange permits the specific same-player under combinations now restricted by the NBA. It’s a similar story on Polymarket (although many of the markets are restricted to the international site.

Now, whether or not the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket will conform to the NBA’s wagering wishlist remains up in the air, particularly as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the prediction markets in the US, has been reluctant so far to impose comparable restrictions. Given that neither the NBA nor the NFL has partnered with either firm, it limits their control over what products they can offer in terms of league-related sports event contracts. 

This isn’t to say that prediction markets are actively encouraging bent players to manipulate their performances for financial gain, but working on the assumption that the under markets are highly profitable revenue streams, it seems unlikely they would opt to drop them unless forced to.

Where Does Sports Betting Go From Here?

With the new season on the horizon, the NBA will ultimately be hoping that the latest push to bar sportsbooks from offering easier-to-manipulate SGP and under markets will go some way to cleaning up the sport's reputation following the recent scandals. And rightly so, as having crowned eight different champions in the last eight seasons, the league is perhaps the most competitive it has ever been, a tantalizing prospect for every NBA fan up and down the country. 

Although seasoned bettors accustomed to wagering on these sportsbook markets will be losing out as a result of the sweeping NBA directives, don’t be surprised if they suddenly start converging on the prediction market platforms instead. 

Essentially, only time will tell whether the NBA decides to side with the NFL or the NHL in tackling the divisive elephant in the room, but for now the outcome is anyone’s guess.