AI Best Bets: Our AI Betting Experiment Stays Red Hot

After a stellar week last week, Perplexity kept it rolling into Week 8 with big-time best bet options for the World Cup and baseball.

Last week, USA beat Australia, and the game stayed under 2.5 goals. Canada routed Qatar. Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal went over on strikeouts in his first start back from injury. Los Angeles Dodgers beat Tampa Bay.

That’s essentially the second-straight undefeated card for Perp. And the wins push the eight-week running total to nearly 11 units in the green. The picks aren’t necessarily sexy, but they are successful.

The lesson remains the same as last week. The boring version of this column is the good version. No hero-ball, no ten-leg nonsense, no chasing long shots for the sake of content—just a handful of well-priced bets, tied to form, matchup, and tournament structure. 

That is the exact plan again for Week 9, with the World Cup doing most of the heavy lifting and baseball filling out the edges.

This week’s best bets plan

We’ll keep cruising with the World Cup host countries, because they continued to deliver in their second week of action. 

This week’s games will be a little riskier as both the US and Mexico could decide to let off the gas pedal, having already secured their tickets to the knockout stage, but they’ve been dominant enough to keep riding, at least according to Perp. Plus, remember soccer betting is a bit different than the big four sports.

We’ll also go ahead and stick with strikeout props in our baseball wagers. Pitchers have established their norms, and the strikeouts aren’t dependent on wins or losses, so they seem to be pretty predictable for the AI bookmaker to suggest. 

Mexico moneyline vs. Czechia

Mexico already has Group  A tied up, and they’ll now face Czechia in what should be a controlled group-stage finish. There’s a risk that Mexico will rest starters but the model still likes them.

What Perp said: “Mexico’s defensive solidity with 13 clean sheets in 20 matches makes the away win at favorable odds an undervalued market.”

• Bet: Mexico moneyline vs. Czechia

USA moneyline vs. Turkey

The U.S. is favored to beat Turkey 2-1 in their Group D finale. The moneyline is around +140 to +150, and the AI model sees USA as the stronger side.

What Perp said: “Licensed US sportsbooks have the USA moneyline around +140, with BTTS Yes at -128 and Over 1.5 Goals at -310 as the key markets. The USA are favored to beat Turkey 2-1 in their 2026 World Cup Group D finale.”

• Bet: USA moneyline vs. Turkey

Switzerland vs. Canada Draw

Switzerland is the stronger side based on FIFA ranking differential, and the model sees Switzerland as the most likely winner with a 40% win probability. Canada playing at home could give them the slight edge for a draw, however.

What Perp said: “Switzerland is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 40.0%, however the most likely correct score for this match is Canada 1-1 Switzerland.”

• Bet: Switzerland and Canada to draw

France moneyline vs. Norway

France is the tournament favorite and a heavy favorite in their group. The AI model says France is the best play on the board for June 26.

What Perp said: “France is the current favorite to win the World Cup with +430 odds, anchored by Kylian Mbappé. The best play on the board for June 26 is France to win vs. Norway.”

• Bet: France moneyline vs. Norway

Tarik Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts

Skubal was a safe wager early in the season before injury. He came out in his first start after an injury and kept on fanning hitters. He’s still auditioning for a likely trade, and he’s got the big swinging Yankees offense in front of him.

What Perp said: “Skubal threw six strikeouts in five scoreless innings on his start back from injury, touched 99 mph on the fastball, and showed sharp changeup and slider velocity again, which is exactly what you want for an over strikeout play on a return.”

• Bet: Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts

Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 strikeouts 

Misiorowski is dominant. He has a 1.34 ERA and 0.17 ERA in his last eight starts. Many of the books are starting to overrate Misiorowski and Perp seems to think there’s value on under 8.5 strikeouts if you can get -140 or better.

What Perp said: “Misiorowski threw a 104.5 mph pitch, the fastest by a starter since tracking began, and struck out 15 with no walks in a one-hitter. He has a 0.17 ERA in his last eight starts. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 6.75 strikeouts, while oddsmakers are implying 8.21. The model believes there is a 76% chance he records fewer than 9 strikeouts.”

• Bet: Misiorowski under 8.5 strikeouts 

Key Takeaways

That straightforward card is the whole idea.

• Keep the card small.
• Keep the bets rational.
• Let the World Cup group favorites do the heavy lifting.
• Let baseball fill in the rest without getting cute.

Last week was proof that the boring version of this column is the good version. The only job now is to not mess it up.