Chiefs Out, Texans In: Five Bold Takes for the 2026 NFL Season

The 2026 NFL season is just a few days away, and this year promises to be one of the best yet. There are several Super Bowl-caliber teams in each division, and there are more superstar quarterbacks than ever scattered across the NFL. There is certainly no shortage of storylines, and that should make for an awesome season.

But before we get to Week 1, it’s time to make some bold predictions that surely won’t age well. Nevertheless, here are five things we think will happen during the upcoming NFL season!

The Los Angeles Rams Will Not Represent The NFC In The Super Bowl

The Los Angeles Rams are the Super Bowl favorites on every single sportsbook and prediction market right now. They are currently trading at a 16% probability (per Kalshi) to win the upcoming Super Bowl, and it’s not hard to understand why.

The Rams went 12-5 last season and reached the NFC Championship Game, where they just narrowly lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. The Rams upgraded this offseason by adding the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett, who is arguably the best overall player in the NFL. But that wasn’t their only big move; they also traded for Trent McDuffie, who is one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. 

They also convinced Aaron Donald to come out of retirement, which makes the defense even scarier. The Rams now have two multi-time Defensive Players of the Year on their roster, which has never been done before in NFL history.

For most NFL bettors, it seems like the Rams are a shoo-in to make it to the Super Bowl. But don’t be surprised if they don’t make it this year. There are several quality teams in the NFC who could stop them, including two in their own division.

The Rams are a star-heavy team with several of their best players in their 30s. And the NFL can be cruel to older teams, especially in a 17-game season. Expect the Rams to make the playoffs, but don’t be surprised if they aren’t representing the NFC in the Super Bowl this year despite adding three All-Pro defenders this offseason.

The Kansas City Chiefs Will Miss The Postseason Again

For the last half-decade, we could just pencil in the Kansas City Chiefs to make it to the AFC Championship Game, at the very least. And that was the case from 2018 to 2024, as they had one of the NFL’s best offenses and were led by the consensus No. 1 QB, Patrick Mahomes

But the Chiefs missed the postseason last season, and that wasn’t just due to the ACL tear to Mahomes. They were 6-7 when he got hurt and they just didn’t have it on offense. Unfortunately, they don’t appear to be any closer to making the postseason in 2026.

The Chiefs currently are trading at a 6% probability to win the Super Bowl this season, which is actually fifth-best in the NFL. But that is a huge mistake. They might not even be the second-best team in their own division, and the entire roster got old really quickly.

Kansas City lacks playmakers in the passing game, and they don’t have the pass-rushers or the cornerbacks to stop elite passing attacks. They are hopeful that Kenneth Walker will solve their run-game woes, but the lack of weapons in the passing game might be too much for the Chiefs to overcome.

Not only are we predicting that the Chiefs won’t be back in contention in 2026, it seems like another 6-11 win season could be on deck. The Mahomes dynasty officially comes to an end in 2026.

The Steelers Will Win The AFC North… Again

The last game of the 2025 NFL season featured the Pittsburgh Steelers beating the Baltimore Ravens on a missed field goal by Tyler Loop. That win clinched the AFC North for the Pittsburgh Steelers during Aaron Rodgers’ first year with the team.

But heading into the 2026 season, both the Ravens and the Bengals have significantly better odds to win the division. That’s usually the case as bettors like wagering on elite quarterbacks, such as Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

However, don’t be surprised if the Steelers repeat as division champs again in 2026. They are currently trading at an 18% probability to win the AFC North despite having the best defense in the division by a mile. They also should be much improved on offense this season after hiring Mike McCarthy and bringing in several veterans like Michael Pittman Jr. and Rico Dowdle to round out the offense.

The Steelers have one of the NFL’s most favorable schedules, especially early on and that should allow them to stack up a bunch of wins. The Steelers have a great track record against Lamar Jackson and that could be the difference for them in the AFC North. Look for the Steelers to repeat as AFC North champions despite other “flashier” teams in the division.

Jordan Love Will Win The NFL MVP Award

Wagering on the NFL MVP award is one of the most enjoyable bets you can make during the football season as it allows you to watch and root for a singular player all season long. However, the MVP award has turned into a quarterback award (last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012) and it’s become a bit of a narrative award. The QB with the most wins or best stats doesn’t always win the award. Instead, it’s about the quarterback who is on a winning team and is also posting big numbers.

The best value on the board this year is Jordan Love for a variety of reasons. No. 1, he plays on a historic franchise that we expect to be good this season. But because Micah Parsons is set to miss at least the first month of the season and who knows how long Josh Jacobs (commissioner’s list) might be out, there is already a built-in narrative with Love.

If he goes out and wins a bunch of games despite having a poor defense, voters will remember that come January. And because of the bad defense and lack of a running game, Love will likely have to throw the ball a bunch, which should allow him to rack up the stats.

Love is currently trading at a 5% probability to win the award, which is 11^th in the NFL. But if the Packers make the postseason, it’s going to be because of their star quarterback. Now is the time to get in on Love, especially because he has the playmakers in the passing game to post huge numbers this season.

The Houston Texans Will Win The Super Bowl

It’s hard to say for sure who the best team in the AFC is going into the 2026 season, but the Texans have a great case. Houston had the No. 1 defense (by yards) in 2025 and they managed to add to their unit, signing Jadeveon Clowney and Reed Blankenship. They drafted one of the top run defenders (Kayden McDonald) and all 11 starters return in 2026.

The biggest question is the offense, but Houston did a great job of revamping their offensive line this offseason. It’s worth mentioning that the Texans started the 2025 season with a 0-3 record and then proceeded to win 13 of their next 15 games (including a playoff win over the Steelers).

They fell to New England in Round 2 of the playoffs, but that was without Nico Collins and they turned the ball over five times. If Stroud can continue to improve in 2026, there is no reason why the Texans can’t win 12+ games again this season and be the top seed in the AFC. They have the best defense in the world and if the offense is just functional, they will be nearly impossible to beat.

Right now, the Texans are trading at a 5% probability to win the Super Bowl on Kalshi and that seems far too low for a team that is shoo-in to win double-digit games this season.