AI Best Bets: Perplexity Scores Big Wins on Knicks, Canes

After a miserable start to June, our AI tout, Perplexity, finally did what it was supposed to do last week: stop forcing it in our Best Bets of the week experiment. 

The card was built around smaller, cleaner bets, resulting in a sharp return to profit. Mexico handled South Africa 2-0 and cashed the under 2.5 goals ticket in the World Cup opener. The USA beat Paraguay to land the moneyline, and the Knicks stormed back to win Game 4 of the NBA Finals. 

Carolina and the over delivered in a Stanley Cup Final parlay, and Cam Schlittler got over 6.5 strikeouts for the Yankees.

That kind of week is a reminder that this experiment works best when it stays boring. No hero-ball, no multi-leg nonsense, no chasing longshots for the sake of content. 

It’s just a handful of well-priced bets, tied to form, matchup, and tournament structure. That is the exact plan again for June 15-21, with the World Cup doing most of the heavy lifting and baseball filling out the edges.

 This week’s best bets plan

With the Stanley Cup Playoffs and NBA Championship wrapped up, we’ll turn most of our attention to the World Cup and soccer betting. We’ll throw in a little baseball action as well, but the world’s eyes are on soccer. 

And we’ll stick with the host nations, as Mexico and the U.S. delivered last week. 

Here’s what Perp gave us for June 15-21. 

USA moneyline vs. Australia

The U.S. got out to a strong start against a solid Paraguay team, so Americans are excited about the game again. Can they keep the momentum rolling against Australia? Perp thinks so.

What Perp said: “This is the cleanest single-match bet on the board. The U.S. opened around -185 against Australia for June 19, and that price reflects both the opening result and the wider belief that the Americans are the stronger team in this group.” 

USA vs. Australia under 2.5 goals

What the AI said: “The U.S. does not need chaos here. It needs three points, control, and a clean path into the knockout stage. The market had the under 2.5 at -122 to open, and that tracks with the shape of the game: a favorite likely to dictate tempo against an underdog that would be happy to keep it tight.”

• USA Moneyline
• USA vs. Australia under 2.5 goals

Mexico to win Group A

Mexico picked up a big win in Mexico City in the first game. Now they’ll head to Guadalajara and face South Korea, which itself picked up a big win against Czechia. But Mexico was already favored to win Group A and now has a clean lane. 

What Perp says: “Mexico sits in the exact kind of position bettors want in a group-stage favorite: one strong result in hand and a clear path to control the group rather than chase it. It is not a huge plus-money payday, but it is the kind of medium-confidence tournament bet that belongs on a small card.”

• Mexico to win Group A

Canada — Moneyline

Canada picked up its first World Cup points with a 1-1 tie against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Toronto. Now, it’ll play Qatar, which also picked up its first World Cup point last week, in Vancouver. Canada is a much stronger side on paper than Qatar, and playing at home, so a win seems certain.

What Perp says: “This is the most conditional play on the card, but Canada belongs somewhere in the World Cup section because the host nation angle is still worth backing when the matchup allows it. The preferred route is simple: "if Canada’s next opponent is one they should beat, take the moneyline."

• Canada Moneyline 

Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay - Moneyline

Dodgers Ace Shohei Ohtani will take the mound at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday against the Rays, and Perp is riding the team that’s delivered well all year when Ohtani is pitching. He’s 6-2 with a 1.06 ERA, not bad. 

What Perp says: “The Dodgers remain one of the clearest offense-plus-bullpen teams on the board, and on the right pitching matchup, they are exactly the kind of chalk that belongs in a conservative weekly card.”

• Dodgers Moneyline

Tarik Skubal over strikeouts

This one’s a little bit of a risk, but I asked Perp for a Tarik Skubal prop as he was a safe wager early in the season before an injury. Sure, this is his first start back from injury, so he might be rusty, but he’s also auditioning for a likely trade. 

What Perp says: “Skubal threw six strikeouts in five scoreless innings on his rehab start, touched 99 mph on the fastball, and showed sharp changeup and slider velocity again, which is exactly what you want for an overstrikeout play on a return.”

• Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts

Key Takeaways

Keep the card small. 

Keep the bets rational and let the World Cup home favorites do the heavy lifting, and let baseball fill in the rest without getting cute. 

Last week was proof that the boring version of this column is the good version. The only job now is to not mess it up.