Hot Starts, Cold Reality: Five MLB Teams Likely to Regress

Looking at the current Major League Baseball standings, the New York Mets have one of the worst records in baseball, while the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, and New York Yankees are tied for the best record. Should Mets fans throw in the towel on the 2026 season? Are the Braves, Cubs, or Yankees going to win the World Series?

These would be classic early-season overreactions. 

We can all agree that the Mets, with the second-highest payroll in baseball, are one of the biggest disappointments so far. The regular season consists of 162 games and runs until September 27. Teams will go through hot and cold spells.

So here’s something to ponder: Which of these hot starts are the real deal and which ones are about to fall apart? 

We take a closer look at the hot starts and cold realities of another long MLB season. 

Top MLB teams expected to regress in 2026

Athletics

The A’s might be the early AL West leaders, yet they have a -10 run differential that ranks in the middle of the pack among all MLB clubs. They have an 8-5 record against AL West clubs, including the Houston Astros, who are getting hit hard with injuries. Looking at projected win totals, the team is still expected to finish with a losing record and has just a 28% chance of making the playoffs.

Rays

Tampa Bay has opened the season 25-12, including a 7-0 record against AL East clubs, making them one of baseball’s hottest teams. So far, key metrics such as run differential (+19), an 8-1 record in one-run games, and 299 BABIP (eighth overall) are all favorable. Pitching could be the issue over a 162-game season as the team’s xERA (4.21) ranks in the lower half among MLB teams.  

Reds

Since starting the season 20-11, Cincinnati is already showing signs of regression with seven straight losses and a -30 run differential. The NL Central is one of the more competitive divisions right now, so going through extended cold spells is not going to help the cause. Having a team xERA of 5.16 and a BABIP of .262, both of which rank dead last, are clear signs that Cincinnati was enjoying a hot start. 

Nationals

 The Washington Nationals were second in the NL East as of May 8 with an 18-20 record. This stands out because the top  MLB betting sites projected this club, which hasn’t finished with a winning record since 2019, would once again finish with one of the worst records in baseball. BetMGM had Washington priced at +600 - the second shortest behind the Colorado Rockies (-400). The Nationals are 5-5 in one-run games with a -10 run differential. Having a losing record at home also doesn’t help.

White Sox

A 17-20 record isn’t exactly considered a hot start, unless you’re the Chicago White Sox - a franchise that has lost at least 101 games in each of the previous three seasons. The combination of a .279 BABIP (24th), 5-5 record in one-run games, and -16 run differential are all signs that Chicago’s days of being two games out of first in the AL Central are likely numbered.  

Betting implications tied to regression

There is often hidden volatility with early-season MLB betting. Markets may lag behind regression. MLB bettors could find opportunities to fade underperforming teams. At the same time, it’s a good idea to approach with caution, as overreacting too early isn’t necessarily the right approach. 

Remember, the MLB regular season is a marathon and not a sprint. The regular season stretches over six months, and the standings in September are going to look much different from what they do now. It’s all part of the anticipated normalization.   

Coming soon: Normalization of 2026 MLB season

Sometime between May and September 27, we are going to see regression among MLB clubs. Will the Athletics, the franchise with the fifth-lowest payroll in baseball and no permanent home until 2028, still be leading the American League West? Will the Chicago White Sox still be contending with the Cleveland Guardians for the American League Central crown? 

Probably not. 

However, should these teams regress, their respective seasons wouldn’t be considered failures. They would be written off as a normalization. It happens every MLB season.

In baseball, the truth usually shows up over 162 games, it just takes time to see it unfold.