Prediction Markets Give Edge to Anthropic Over OpenAI in IPO Race

Anthropic and OpenAI have become two of the most highly scrutinized private companies worldwide. Both companies are situated at the forefront of the booming artificial intelligence industry. Both companies have raised billions of dollars in capital. Both companies are held to high expectations regarding the future of software, work, enterprise tools, and consumer technology development.

But get this: prediction markets are also telling us something that may surprise you. The top‑of‑mind household name, the company associated with ChatGPT, OpenAI, actually has traders betting against it, expecting a higher IPO (initial public offering) valuation. 

Traders are placing real, tangible money on the line and are currently favoring Anthropic as the enterprise‑focused challenger behind Claude and as the one to beat for bigger IPO valuations.

Let's see what prediction markets are telling us about which AI giant has the biggest chance of delivering a bigger IPO.

Why These Two IPOs Matter

For those looking to invest, an IPO involving OpenAI or Anthropic goes beyond just being listed on the stock market; it will also indicate which company has captured the largest share of value from the economic boom created by artificial intelligence. 

The total market cap realized in conjunction with SpaceX/xAI will amount to $4 trillion on Wall Street, bringing additional value to the private equity markets. 

More importantly, among the first-listed companies in the artificial intelligence space, Anthropic will have the opportunity to define the public perception of artificial intelligence and how its use will be perceived by potential buyers; therefore, traders will recognize this large advantage prior to OpenAI being established as a public company.

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Prediction markets aren't crystal balls, but they do offer clues about public sentiment. And that sentiment has definitely turned on a dime.

Traders jumped Anthropic's odds to 88% of having their IPO confirmed by November, following their surprise June 1 filing. According to Polymarket, there's a 78% chance the company will beat OpenAI to the public markets. Of course, the details of the contract are important; traders put 80% odds on one of the companies IPOing by 2040 with more than $120K traded.

Most importantly: valuation. While prediction markets expect Anthropic to reach a $1 trillion market cap first, traders have questioned OpenAI's cash burn and its delayed pivot to enterprise clients. 

The difference was striking on Polymarket: traders put 47% odds on Anthropic ending its first day of trading above $1.8 trillion, while they gave OpenAI only a 65% chance of finishing its first day above $1.4 trillion. The clear gap shows the market's conviction that Anthropic's enterprise pivot will lead to the premium.

The case for OpenAI having the bigger IPO

An improved public persona has been created for OpenAI by positioning ChatGPT as a leading AI brand for many around the world, generating significant interest among potential investors. 

By transitioning to a publicly traded entity through its 2025 restructuring, OpenAI has opened itself to new opportunities for its shareholders is set to list sometime this year. 

In addition, the partnership with Microsoft allows them to leverage Microsoft’s capital, platforms, and access to enterprise customers. 

As a result, it is possible that OpenAI could see an increase in its value as a result of being recognized as a leader in AI.

The case for Anthropic closing the gap

Despite its limited public exposure, Anthropic has established credibility with businesses through numerous partnerships across the cloud ecosystem. 

More than 80% of Anthropic’s revenue comes from business customers. As of now, two-thirds of traders expect Claude to become the best AI product by year-end, given its rapid growth. Amazon and Google’s support, combined with their “safety-first” product strategy, will give them a big advantage in a more regulated environment.

Why prediction markets may be especially useful here

The timing and valuations for these two companies' IPO processes are unknown because they have filed confidentially and released minimal information about their offerings. 

AI narratives are subject to overnight change, especially as new models, partnerships or regulations emerge. 

When no other means are available to gauge investor sentiments in real time, prediction markets aggregate those opinions that are both real-time and capital-backed, providing a public proxy for investor expectations.

The Risks of Treating Prediction Markets as Truth

Now, a word of caution. You should remember that while prediction markets can provide valuable insights, they are not always definitive. And there is often low liquidity in specific contracts. 

Those who engage in speculation may also be subject to the same hype cycle as others on Wall Street. 

Also, the way contracts are written may leave room for easy misinterpretation; therefore, be aware of potential insider trading in rapidly changing marketplaces.

The value assigned to items in the marketplace is merely a manifestation of an individual's belief; it is not the actual eventuality. This component of AI will continue to evolve and develop indefinitely over time. 

Development of new products or updates to existing products may significantly affect the current market price of products from day to day.

Sources: Kalshi, Polymarket, startuphub.ai

There is more to the IPO competition between OpenAI and Anthropic than simply which company goes public first; rather, the two competitors have opposing philosophies about how to grow their businesses effectively.

OpenAI is focused on building consumer demand and growing its platform, while Anthropic is focused on providing sustainable enterprise customers, increasing developer usage of its services, and creating profitable revenue streams. 

Although indicators suggest that Anthropic's IPO will be valued significantly higher than OpenAI's, traditional investors and roadshows will ultimately determine the valuations of both companies. 

Until more clarity emerges, keep your eye out for developments (from both companies), build strategic alliances where appropriate and keep in mind that in the field of AI, change is the only constant.