How Giannis, LeBron Could Reshape the NBA Landscape This Summer

The Knicks closed out the NBA Finals in five games to win their first championship since 1973. They went 16-3 in the playoffs and finished with the largest cumulative point differential in NBA postseason history. 

It was a historic run, but there is no time for New York or anyone else to reflect on this past season and relax. The first round of the 2026 NBA Draft occurs on June 23, and teams are legally allowed to negotiate with free agents beginning June 30. The next two weeks will be the most hectic period of the summer.

From a superstar trade to a future Hall-of-Famer entering free agency, here are the two biggest questions that loom over the 2026 offseason. 

Which Team Wins the Giannis Antetokounmpo Sweepstakes?

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are finally heading for a breakup after 13 seasons together, which included two league MVP awards for the superstar and a championship. The 31-year-old is still a top-five player in the NBA who averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game on 65.8% true shooting this past season. However, Antetokounmpo’s market value does not match his impact due to his age, injury history, and massive 2027 salary cap figure. The eventual trade return for Milwaukee may seem unimpressive as a result. 

Boston, Miami Make the Case for Giannis

Which teams are favored to land the superstar? Boston and Miami currently lead the pack. The Celtics’ framework would be rerouting Jaylen Brown to a third party while sending a small amount of draft capital to the Bucks. Atlanta and Portland are both logical destinations for Brown, and they have enough young players and picks to entice Milwaukee. 

As for the Heat, their package revolves around a haul of draft picks and some combination of Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, and Nikola Jovic. This group contains solid to good players yet lacks a foundational star that Milwaukee can build around. It’s easy to see why Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that “some rival executives still believe the Bucks are underwhelmed by the offers”, although they only have themselves to blame for not trading him last offseason when his market value was higher. 

If Milwaukee remains unhappy with these frameworks, then a dark horse could swipe Antetokounmpo. San Antonio is the elephant in the room. The Spurs may look to trade De’Aaron Fox this offseason to expedite Dylan Harper’s ascension, and Antetokounmpo would complement Victor Wembanyama perfectly. It’s a risky, shortsighted move given the Spurs’ youth, but capitalizing on their rookie contracts and Wembanyama’s superstar impact is worth considering. They could win the next two championships with this roll of the dice. 

Will LeBron James Return to the Lakers?

Although LeBron James has not confirmed whether he will return for his 24th season or not, the future Hall-of-Famer is widely expected to suit up for at least one more season. He’s an unrestricted free agent, which means James can choose his destination assuming his interest is reciprocated. Most contenders should be eagerly pursuing the 4x champion because his performance in the 2026 playoffs proved he remains an All-NBA caliber player when it matters most. 

The Lakers are allowed to sign James to his maximum amount, even if they are above the salary cap, because they have his Full Bird Rights. This mechanic gives them an advantage over other teams that are more limited as to what they can offer. However, Los Angeles could decide to part ways and transition completely into the Luka Dončić era, especially if James demands max money. Building the roster around Dončić and Austin Reaves long-term would be far easier without James’ considerable salary cap hit. 

There are financial hurdles to overcome should James leave the Lakers. Teams above the salary cap but below the first apron can use the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) to sign him for up to a projected $15.04 million next season. A downside is that utilizing this exception would hard-cap the team at the first apron. Teams above the first apron but below the second apron can use the Taxpayer Mid-level Exception (MLE) to sign James for up to a projected $6.06 million next season. This would hard-cap the team at the second apron. Finally, teams above the second apron can only sign James to a veteran minimum contract, which is projected to be up to $3.88 million. 

Is a Cleveland Comeback in the Cards?

Cleveland is the frontrunner to poach James in free agency because of his history with the franchise. However, he would need to give the Cavaliers a significant hometown discount since they are currently $210,758 above the second apron. In an ideal world, Cleveland would dump Dennis Schröder’s salary, lower James Harden’s 2027 cap hit by having him decline his player option to ink a long-term contract, sign James to the full MLE, and fill out the roster with veteran minimums. But this plan obviously hinges on James accepting a $6.06 million salary. It becomes a bit more complicated if James wants the full NTMLE ($15.04 million). The Cavaliers would probably need to swap Max Strus with another veteran on a smaller deal. 

Golden State is another option should James want to team up with his main rival, Stephen Curry, as he did in the 2024 Olympics. The Warriors can offer the full NTMLE, but the roster would be extremely thin due to financial constraints unless they made a drastic move like offloading Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green. James should sign the MLE to join Golden State realistically. 

When Do the Bucks and LeBron James Need to Decide? 

Overall, Antetokounmpo is the most consequential domino of the 2026 offseason. He will alter the league’s landscape and likely shake the championship odds. It’s not often that a player of his caliber hits the open market. Look for the Bucks to iron out a deal before June 23 so that they enter the 2026 Draft with as many picks as possible. It would be a shame for Milwaukee to miss out on its choice of the premium talent in this draft. 

And while James’ decision does not hold the same weight from a championship equity perspective, it’s still a considerable move that also affects his historic legacy. He must finalize his plans before July 6 or risk his preferred team squandering its money on other players.