World Cup Betting Explodes on Kalshi, Polymarket with Billions in Volume

We've not even finished the group stage at this year's World Cup, yet $3.1 billion in trading volume has already been wagered on Polymarket as to who will be crowned winners in New York on July 19.

Given that sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel had a monopolistic grip at the last World Cup, punters now appear to be shifting away from vig-loaded odds towards trading sports event contracts. As a result, Bodog takes a snapshot heading into the knockout stages of how these two rival concepts are fighting for every sports wagering dollar at the 2026 World Cup Finals. 

The World Cup So Far… How Prediction Markets Gatecrashed the World Cup

It appears the days of traditional sportsbook World Cup bet slips may be numbered if what we've witnessed so far is anything to go on. 

As prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi celebrate their inaugural World Cup offering sports event contracts, sports bettors themselves are loving the concept of being able to buy and sell contracts on World Cup outcomes.

Given that prediction markets are often a fairer reflection of the true probability of an event occurring, it removes many of the overrounds typically implemented by sportsbooks, granting bettors far more profitable edges in markets such as:

• World Cup Winner
• World Cup Nations to Reach Final
• World Cup Golden Boot
• Hosts USA Stage of Elimination 

Undoubtedly, the World Cup is already shaping up to be a classic, with the biggest names in world soccer all currently sitting exactly where you'd expect, having hit the ground running. 

France's lightning-fast start to this year's World Cup has already seen them overtake pre-tournament favorites Spain, who endured a sluggish start after drawing with minnows Cabo Verde. Likewise, the universally popular Lionel Messi has already fired himself to the top of Polymarket's Golden Boot market.

How Much Volume Is Actually Trading?

Needless to say, it's not necessarily the team and player odds that have garnered the most notable headlines; perhaps it's the fact that the trading volume to predict the World Cup Champion has already smashed through the $3.1 billion threshold. 

Although interestingly, the trading volume isn't closely aligned with each team's perceived chances of winning the greatest prize in world soccer.

Source: Polymarket (Correct as of July 24, 2026)

Even outside of the platform's overall trading numbers, the volume being placed on individual teams is similarly impressive. No doubt, by the time the group stages are done, trades on the USA lifting the World Cup Trophy will have exceeded the $100 million barrier. 

However, it's hard to ignore that two of Polymarket's largest user bases - the United States and Canada - are likely to have benefited here and, inherently, skewing the volume distribution too. We can assume this as noticeably, in countries where Polymarket is currently banned, such as France and Argentina, trading volume is comparatively low, despite both being favorites to win.

Prediction Markets vs Traditional Sportsbooks – How Do They Compare?

On the face of it, other than the slightly elevated values on outcome selections, there’s not a huge variation between sportsbook odds and Polymarket sentiment in key markets - at least when it comes to the market favorites. 

Only when you drop down the charts can you start to see noticeable discrepancies. 

For instance, in the World Cup Winners market, both formats have France as favorites, but Argentina’s price on Polymarket currently has them perched above both Spain and England. In comparison, Argentina sits below both these teams in the rankings on DraftKings, level on odds with England.

Likewise, in the Golden Boot selections, both the bookies and the prediction markets list Messi, Mbappe, Haaland, and Kane as the top four contenders. However, the market becomes more muddied below these, with Ronaldo recording the highest traded volume on Polymarket but sat as sixth favorite in the listings, whereas DraftKings has him joint fifth with Spain’s Oyarzabal.

Needless to say, for punters looking for potential value bets, you may want to stick to the less-favored contenders if your goal is to pick out more lucrative edges.

Source: Polymarket (Correct as of July 24, 2026)

As you can imagine, the outright winner market remains king, as traditionally it has always acquired the largest betting volumes in the past. The reason being is that punters negate national biases in favor of wagering on elite, in-form teams like France, Spain, England, and Argentina.

Nevertheless, as soon as the tournament reaches the knockout stages, specialist markets such as the Golden Boot and the USA Stage of Elimination can start to fluctuate heavily. This primarily happens when a heavily favored team or player exits the tournament, which is part and parcel of the high-pressure nature of the win-or-go-home format, but paves the way for plenty of exciting trading opportunities. 

What the World Cup Could Mean for Prediction Markets

If there’s one thing to know about World Cups, it’s that a team’s fortunes can change on a dime, and prediction markets will almost certainly be the first to register these fluctuations. By way of an example, a team unexpectedly drawing in the final round of group games can completely transform the World Cup bracket for several other nations, including the favorites. 

Furthermore, breaking team news or training ground injuries to key players can also immediately impact the prices on prediction markets. However, this is what savvy traders thrive on, as monitoring these easily missed updates can elevate edges if the market is slow to react. 

Granted, the FIFA World Cup has always been a betting phenomenon, however, Polymarkets early success clearly demonstrates there is a space at the table for prediction markets moving forward. Even with huge swaths of the global population geo-blocked from using prediction market platforms, the volumes already seen have reinforced the sector's enormous growth potential.

The Bottom Line 

Are mainstream sportsbooks worried? You bet your bottom dollar they are. So much so that gambling firms such as DraftKings and FanDuel have been forced to push out their own prediction market platforms in an attempt to compete rather than being left behind. 

The sheer volume of trades on Polymarket and Kalshi at this World Cup has no doubt solidified prediction markets' standing as a revolutionary sports betting entity – but it comes with a caveat. 

While sports event traders are clearly on board, the fact remains that prediction markets' legal standing - at least in the United States – is still up for debate. With sportsbooks including DraftKings and FanDuel themselves lobbying millions of dollars to have the format outlawed, be sure you enjoy the World Cup prediction markets this time around, as there’s a remote chance they might not be legal in 2030.