World Cup 2026 Odds Update: France Ascends, Argentina Drifts

For soccer fans everywhere, winning the FIFA World Cup will always remain the ultimate prize – yet, 96 years on from the inaugural tournament, only eight teams have ever made that dream a reality.

Nonetheless, 2026 sees the newest iteration of the tournament structure – the first ever to feature 48 nations – which, for sports bettors, means more chances to profit from the action on the pitch. However, with a record 104 World Cup games set to be played across three host nations – Mexico, Canada, and the USA – understanding how to interpret the World Cup odds can make or break your tournament wagering strategy.

Extreme summer temperatures, challenging variations in stadium altitude, and the physical toll of teams traveling thousands of miles between venues mean the potential for upsets or a new name being etched onto the World Cup trophy is very much on the cards.

With sportsbook and prediction market odds in a constant state of flux, here is our expert guide on which of the top teams are best placed to go all the way, and the dark horses you need to watch out for ahead of kickoff on June 11 in Mexico City.

For more, read our 2026 FIFA World Cup country guides:

• FIFA World Cup Guide Canada Edition
• FIFA World Cup Guide Mexico Edition
• FIFA World Cup Guide USA Edition

Who are the 2026 World Cup favorites, and why?

In theory, the new 48-team tournament format should see the leading nations face an easier path to the knockout rounds in the group stages. That being said, more games can mean more problems, but here’s how the sportsbooks' favorites are shaping up.

Spain (+450)

Reigning UEFA European Champions Spain inevitably lead the bookies and prediction market odds table due to their dominating style of play, not to mention their crop of proven young starlets, headed by Lamine Yamal. However, tournament form is against them here, as after winning the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, they have failed to reach the quarterfinals in each of the last three tournaments since, which could be their undoing again in 2026

England (+550)

Buoyed by a flawless qualifying campaign, winning all eight matches, scoring 22 goals, and never conceding, England’s World Cup odds reflect that they are a potent force on the world stage. Nevertheless, as any England fan will tell you, after 60 years of hurt since their sole 1966 World Cup win, coupled with mounting concerns of Tuchel’s men playing in the sweltering heat of a North American summer, many believe they may inevitably fall short once again.

France (+750)

Semi-finalists at the last Euros, World Cup runners-up in Qatar last time around, and winners in Russia in 2018, France have an enviable track record of recent tournament performances. With seasoned players like Mbappé in their ranks, ‘Les Bleus’ certainly pose a real threat again this time around, despite entering the tournament with well-documented defensive frailties.

Brazil (+750)

Unsurprisingly, five-time World Cup Winners Brazil are once again a popular favorite to be crowned champions in 2026, and with good reason. A formidable attacking powerhouse with a dynamic blend of youth and experience means teams will hope to avoid the ‘Samba Boys’ in the draw, despite having failed to make the World Cup final in the last five tournaments since they last won it in 2002.

World Cup odds tracking – teams gaining momentum or drifting out of favor

When it comes to World Cup betting, history dictates that tournaments are always prone to shock results, and more importantly, that the favorites don't always win. Because of this, it’s wise to keep tabs on a team's momentum to see whether they're drifting in or out of favor in the market.

With so many factors to consider, from pre-tournament form and injuries to key players, to energy-sapping altitude and climate variations across the 16 World Cup venues, these factors can become a major obstacle for some teams and play directly into the hands of others.

Currently riding high in perceived momentum is Germany - tactically strong with an extensive arsenal of talented players to choose from, their tournament prowess could see their odds come in even further from +1200 before the tournament starts. Another team gaining traction with bettors is Morocco, who continue to shorten to +6000 based on their superb form in January’s African Cup of Nations 2026.

Meanwhile, perhaps reflecting the assessed strength of the competition at this year’s World Cup, bettors seem to be cooling on Argentina as the tournament edges closer. No doubt, the reason behind this centers on whether Lionel Messi – Argentina’s aging talisman - still has the magic left in him to take them all the way, but having drifted out to +800, the World Cup betting odds suggest possibly not.

2026 FIFA World Cup’s dark horses and players to watch out for

Notwithstanding the sanctity of victories by the eight nations that have won the 22 previous World Cups, soccer is rife with historical upsets, which can appeal to bettors who like to back dark horses or spot genuine value bets.

In fact, outside of the outright winner moneyline markets, teams that might not have the roster depth or individual talent to go all the way, still can provide lucrative opportunities to capitalize on alternative markets such as picking the top goal scorer or a group winner.

Remarkably, just as Brazil always features among bettors’ top picks to win, so does Portugal, but as perpetual dark horses. Despite Ronaldo already declaring this will be his last World Cup, his irrefutable talent remains a real threat, which, when combined with the creative geniuses of Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leão, means Portugal could be a great outside bet to become only the ninth nation to lift the trophy.

Norway, too, is certainly another team to keep an eye out for. Aside from being grouped with France and Senegal, with Manchester City’s goal-scoring machine Erling Haaland leading the attack, they not only have a contender for the Golden Boot up front, but a side capable of outscoring any team to finish top of Group I.

World Cup prediction markets vs. sportsbooks

For the first time in World Cup history, sports event contracts offered on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have become a legitimate alternative to the more traditional forms of online betting. While prone to volatile price swings compared to conventional sportsbooks, the premise of World Cup prediction markets allows traders to aim for bigger profits on a given event outcome, sans the inbuilt ‘vigs’ associated with online bookies' odds. For more on the key differences, read our prediction markets vs sports betting guide.

Despite these notable odds discrepancies, prediction market prices are notoriously quick in adjusting to breaking news such as final roster announcements and key player injuries, so genuine edges never last long. Furthermore, it’s assumed that prediction market prices generally stick to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, closely correspond to the actual likelihood of the event happening, so while they may appear better value than the advertised sportsbook odds, they still may not constitute a true value bet.

What drives World Cup odds movements?

World Cups are infamous for last-minute odds movements, often influenced by key drivers such as pre-tournament injuries and, in some cases, decisive training camp infighting. In addition to this, age-old narratives such as how well key players will perform or if a team can transition successfully under a new coach have always played a part in shaping the early betting markets ahead of a FIFA World Cup.

Even once the tournament starts, the performance of a breakout new star can shorten a team’s odds in an instant. Whether it’s the sudden emergence of the next teenage Messi or Ronaldo, or a prolific striker who unexpectedly sets the World Cup on fire, these too can have a massive impact on the odds markets.

Our World Cup 2026 outlook? Expect moments of brilliance, odds volatility, and plenty of lucrative opportunities

As always, World Cups are full of surprise results, astonishing group-round exits, and individual moments of skill and genius that will be replayed at future World Cups for years to come. With that comes a whole series of opportunities that can create profitable edges that nobody else saw coming.

However, to successfully navigate the swings seen in World Cup odds movements throughout the tournament, bettors need to strike a fine balance between spotting authentic value and not getting swept up in the hype.

While Spain and England have cemented themselves as early World Cup favorites, in reality, the expanded tournament format and extensive variable playing conditions throw the door wide open to any underdog on their day. Of course, it would be unwise to rule out Ronaldo or Messi bookending their careers in style by lifting the World Cup on July 19 in the MetLife Stadium in New York, but don’t overlook Mexico, Canada, or the USA, as host nations have a habit of winning the ultimate prize, having won six tournaments on home soil in the past.