The Five World Cup Upsets Sportsbooks Never Saw Coming

World Cup betting markets move early on the tournament favorites, with most sportsbooks largely aligned on which nations should dominate. On paper, the numbers often project confidence and predictability. History, however, has repeatedly shown that the script rarely holds its place. Here are some of the World Cup betting upsets from the modern era that completely stunned everyone.

1. Saudi Arabia 2-1 Argentina, 2022

Argentina arrived in Lusail on a 36-match unbeaten streak, fresh off a Copa América triumph, and with a growing sense that this was finally Lionel Messi’s tournament to own. That’s why the early World Cup odds had La Albiceleste among the top five favorites. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be little more than a formality in Group C. Ranked 51st in the world, they faced one of Argentina’s strongest squads in decades. The game, though, had other ideas.

Lionel Messi’s early penalty felt like the start of a routine dismantling. Argentina controlled the territory and even had three goals chalked off by razor-thin offside calls. By halftime, several sportsbooks had Saudi Arabia priced as high as +15000 to win. Then the match flipped. Saleh Al Shehri’s low finish cracked the game open, and five minutes later Salem Al Dawsari whipped a vicious strike into the top corner to stun the stadium. Argentina threw bodies forward after that, but Saudi Arabia defended with relentless discipline.

A lot of neutrals were definitely pulling for the Middle Eastern side. Everybody loves a World Cup upset, except maybe the people who lost money on it. One of the wildest stories came from Australia’s TAB, which reported that a bettor had placed more than $110,000 USD on Lionel Messi and Argentina to win. Another punter put over $70,000 on Argentina to cover a three-goal margin.

2. Germany bottoms out in Group F, 2018

Top soccer betting sites had Germany priced as co-favorites to win the 2018 World Cup at +450 alongside Brazil. Many backed Joachim Löw’s side for a successful title defense after four years of dominance. Group F odds showed even heavier respect from the market. Germany closed at -325 to win the group, comfortably ahead of Mexico (+550), Sweden (+650), and longshot South Korea (+1600).

Three matches later, Germany finished dead last. The collapse started right away with a 1-0 loss to Mexico. Odds closed around -210 on the Europeans, with Mexico at +600 to win and +335 for the draw. Hirving Lozano was one of the standout performers as Joachim Löw’s high back line got picked apart. Toni Kroos briefly rescued the campaign with a stoppage-time rocket against Sweden, though his team still looked exposed defensively and vulnerable on counters. 

By the South Korea finale, live markets swung wildly as Germany chased goals desperately before Kim Young-gwon and Son Heung-min sealed one of soccer’s biggest World Cup betting shocks.

3. Senegal 1-0 France, 2002

In Against All Odds: The Greatest World Cup Upsets, soccer journalist Philippe Auclair traced France’s 2002 implosion to a squad that had lost its competitive edge. The players arrived in Korea exhausted from brutal club schedules, while the setup around the team drifted into a celebrity circus filled with sponsors, agents, luxury dinners, nightlife, and endless praise. Inside the locker room, senior figures questioned Roger Lemerre’s rigid 4-2-3-1 system, especially with Zinedine Zidane unavailable.

Senegal approached the tournament completely differently. The small details mattered to Bruno Metsu, who insisted his squad complete the full pre-match walk-through inside Seoul World Cup Stadium to fine-tune movement and spacing on the pitch. France brushed off the same session as unnecessary.

That day, El Hadji Diouf spent the afternoon dragging Marcel Desailly and Franck Leboeuf into foot races they could not win, repeatedly isolating France’s aging center-backs in open space. The breakthrough arrived after Youri Djorkaeff lost possession near midfield. Diouf burst down the left and whipped a low cross into the box. Papa Bouba Diop, surrounded by six French defenders after slipping, still managed to stab home the winner as Senegal’s back line absorbed everything afterward.

Interestingly, the upcoming World Cup will showcase another clash as the two footballing giants are drawn into the same group. Senegal gets another crack at France, while the Europeans look to settle old scores. This time, though, the gap between the sides does not feel nearly as dramatic, even if the betting markets still lean heavily toward France. Senegal closed around +800 back in 2002. Current odds still price the Africans at +650, while France opens as a commanding -220 favorite.

4. Costa Rica survives the Group of Death, 2014

Italy, England, Uruguay, and Costa Rica formed what everybody immediately labeled the Group of Death at the 2014 World Cup. Costa Rica barely registered in the conversation. The Central Americans entered as massive longshots (+5000 to win the group), expected to fight simply for respectability against three former world champions. If prediction markets had looked anything like they do today, the only Costa Rica contracts probably centered around avoiding last place or scraping together a couple of goals across the group stage.

Instead, Jorge Luis Pinto’s side walked into Recife and eliminated England before the final group match even kicked off, wiping out plenty of betting interest along the way. They had already beaten a heavily favored (-225) Uruguay side  3-1 in the opener. Against Italy, Costa Rica defended with a narrow back five and compressed the midfield aggressively. This forced them wide whenever Andrea Pirlo tried to control the buildup from deep positions. Mario Balotelli found almost no space behind the defensive line outside one first-half chance created by Pirlo’s clipped pass over the top. His heavy first touch killed it.

The decisive moment arrived late in the first half when Júnior Díaz whipped a cross in from the left. Brian Ruiz slipped between Chiellini and Matteo Darmian before heading the ball off the underside of the bar and across the line. Italy never recovered control after that. Antonio Cassano, Lorenzo Insigne, and Alessio Cerci arrived from the bench, but the passing became rushed and predictable. Costa Rica kept squeezing the space around Balotelli until frustration completely took over.

5. Morocco reached the semifinals in 2022

Morocco entered Qatar as a +25000 longshot across major sports betting sites, but the Atlas Lions kept knocking out major European sides one after another. What probably shocked the soccer world most is that their performance lasted across an entire month. A New York schoolteacher saw it coming, though. He placed $90,818.19 on Morocco to reach the quarterfinals and made over a million dollars. And, of course, there’s also the fact that no African nation had ever reached a World Cup semifinal — despite nearly a century of tournament history.

The first sign arrived in a scoreless draw against Croatia. Possession heavily favored the Europeans at 65%-35%, yet Croatia struggled to turn control into clear chances. Both sides forced the same number of saves (2) from the opposing goalkeeper. Achraf Hakimi made headlines that day for covering enormous ground defensively while still driving Morocco forward whenever transition space opened up.

Then came Belgium. Morocco absorbed pressure for more than an hour before Roman Saïss cracked the match open in the 73rd minute and Zakaria Aboukhlal buried the second deep into stoppage time.

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By the knockout stage, Morocco’s defensive structure had become one of the tournament’s defining stories. Spain, much like every opponent before them (yes, even Canada), dominated possession in the round of 16. However, they repeatedly failed to break lines. Goalkeeper Yassine “Bono” Bounou saved two penalties in the shootout, while Hakimi ended Spain’s night with a Panenka. Against Portugal, Youssef En-Nesyri climbed above the back line for the winner and effectively closed what many believed was Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup chapter. Four years later, though, the story somehow still has another page left in it.

Morocco ultimately fell against France, a semifinal that reportedly generated more than €30 million in betting handle across France alone.