The Wildest Possible Outcomes in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery

The 2026 NBA lottery is scheduled for 3 p.m. Eastern on May 10 and will be broadcast nationally on ABC. The Wizards, Pacers, Nets, Jazz, and Kings were the worst teams this regular season based on record, so they are especially eager for it to begin. 

The Hawks and Thunder both made the playoffs but have stakes in this event. Atlanta can swap its pick with either New Orleans or Milwaukee (whichever is better), while Oklahoma City owns the Clippers’ unprotected pick. 

It will be fascinating to see where the non-playoff teams shake out because the season featured blatant tanking from nearly a third of the league. Can a play-in tournament team win the lottery for the third straight season? Here are the craziest 2026 lottery outcomes, along with a breakdown of the lottery’s history. 

How does the NBA Lottery work?

Unlike the NFL, which sets the draft order for non-playoff teams based on regular-season record, the NBA utilizes a lottery system to determine the draft order for non-playoff teams. 

Franchises with the worst records have the best odds of landing top picks and also cannot fall as far as other teams. For example, the Wizards had the most losses this season. They own a league-leading 14% chance to land the first overall pick and are guaranteed to receive a top-five pick. On the other hand, the Hornets are the last lottery team and therefore possess a 97.6% chance to land the 14th overall pick and a 2.4% chance to jump to the top four. 

History of NBA Lottery Reform

The NBA used to have the worst team in each conference flip a coin for the first and second overall picks, and the rest of the draft was determined by regular-season record. This was scrapped once the Rockets tanked in order to receive a 50% chance of landing Hakeem Olajuwon in the 1984 Draft. 

The league introduced a lottery system that gave each non-playoff team an equal chance of receiving every lottery pick. How did it work? Each lottery team had one envelope, and the order in which every envelope was selected became the draft order. The draft morphed into an even playing field for every non-playoff team. 

Multiple tweaks to the odds were made over the following years until a weighted lottery system was created in 1990. The team with the worst record had the best odds to land the top pick, the second-worst record had the second-best odds, etc. Only the first three picks of the draft were determined via this process. The rest of the draft order reverted to regular-season records. 

This weighted system has undergone changes throughout the following decades, including the top 14 picks being determined by the lottery and not just the top three picks. Odds were also significantly flattened in 2019 to prevent tanking. 

However, the 2026 season featured such egregious tanking that NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is preparing to overhaul the current process. His 3-2-1 proposal would punish the three worst teams by giving them a lower chance of winning the top pick than teams in the four through ten range. The lottery would also expand from 14 to 16 teams, among other changes. It’s a drastic proposal that is intended to eliminate tanking entirely. 

Craziest Lottery Outcomes in NBA History

The Magic won the 1992 lottery with the second-best odds (15.15%) and subsequently drafted Shaquille O’Neal. They improved from 21 to 41 wins the following season and were the last lottery team, yet Orlando still lucked into the first overall pick despite owning a 1.52% chance. The Magic wound up flipping the selection (Chris Webber) for the third overall pick (Penny Hardaway) and three future first-round picks. O’Neal and Hardaway led Orlando to the 1995 NBA Finals, although Olajuwon’s Rockets swept them. 

NBA teams were furious that the Magic won consecutive lotteries, especially because the second time had a very low probability. This caused the league to adjust the lottery system, thus making the worst teams more likely to receive the first overall pick. 

Last year’s lottery also caused an uproar. Dallas traded Luka Dončić to the Lakers at the 2025 trade deadline in what was arguably the most inexplicable transaction in the history of professional sports. The Mavericks immediately fell apart once Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis suffered long-term injuries, which caused the team to squeak into the lottery. Armed with a 1.8% chance, Dallas shockingly won the 2025 lottery and the right to draft future superstar Cooper Flagg as a result. 

It sparked conspiracy theories on social media about NBA Commissioner Adam Silver agreeing to rig the lottery if Dallas traded Dončić, an international superstar, to the golden-child Lakers, with the LeBron James era about to end. There is no tangible proof that supports this theory, but since when has that stopped social media?

Craziest 2026 NBA Lottery Outcomes

The most consequential outcome of the upcoming lottery would be the Thunder landing a top-four pick via the Clippers. They acquired Los Angeles’ selection in the infamous Paul George trade, which has already netted them Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.  

Oklahoma City is stacked with talent and may be the first back-to-back champion since the 2018 Warriors, so the rest of the NBA should be praying that Sam Presti does not luck into one of the best prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, or Caleb Wilson. There’s a 7.2% chance that the Thunder move up to this range, which is small but not nothing. 

Dallas winning the lottery in back-to-back years is another wild outcome. In addition to Cooper Flagg receiving a potential co-star for the next decade, it adds more fuel to the conspiracy theory that Adam Silver rigged the lottery for the Mavericks because they traded Dončić to the Lakers. Dallas has a 6.7% chance to receive the first overall pick in the 2026 lottery. 

Utah falling to the eighth overall pick (2.4% chance) could also fuel conspiracy theories. The Jazz were the poster child of tanking this season and even received a $500,000 fine from the NBA for conduct detrimental to the league. If they plummet to the eighth overall pick, then Adam Silver rigging the lottery to punish them for tanking is the theory that social media will push. Again, there’s no proof that the lottery is anything but honest, yet it would be a popular narrative nonetheless. 

Conclusion 

Overall, the NBA lottery is one of the most exciting events of the season because it creates drama and legitimately changes the direction of numerous franchises. Even teams without great picks can find gems to replace free agents who departed for more money. 

This year’s iteration will be especially thrilling because the 2026 NBA Draft is loaded with talent. Adam Silver’s anti-tanking proposal may also flatten the odds significantly starting next year, so struggling franchises are desperate to land a great pick before the landscape shifts. Look for all eyes to be glued to the upcoming lottery, especially those who bet on NBA lottery outcomes via online sportsbooks.