MLB Playoff Byes Aren't the Advantage You Might Think

Another MLB postseason means it’s time to revisit the yearly hot topic regarding whether or not teams that earn first-round byes actually benefit. This is only the fifth season under the current format that sees four out of the 12 teams secure free passes to the Division Series round.

Players dealing with minor injuries get time to heal, and managers can set starting rotations without worrying about the impacts from best-of-three Wild Card Series. 

Would any team, including the defending world champion Dodgers, really trade the bye for a three-game series where the season could end after two playoff games?

Forget about those sports betting future wagers that were placed during the spring.  The actual postseason results are the data that matters.

We look back at the last four years and determine if the bye has actually helped or hurt teams.   

How the MLB Playoff Bye Works

When MLB tweaked its playoff format, it increased the field from 10 teams to 12, with six from each league and wiped out the single-elimination Wild Card Game.

The first round was switched to a best-of-three format. The top two teams from each league earn the bye that comes with five days off between the final day of the regular season and Game 1 of the Division Series.

What Has Actually Happened Since 2022?

Over the first four seasons of the current format, teams receiving byes hold a 9-7 overall advantage for a .563 win percentage. MLB’s own analysis found that those teams had an expected winning percentage of .576 based on projections, making the results remarkably close to expectations. 

2022 (2-2)

In the first year MLB expanded the 12-team format, the rested AL teams fared just fine as the No. 1 Astros and No. 2 Yankees met in the ALCS. Things unfolded completely differently on the NL side as the No. 6 Phillies and No. 5 Padres eliminated the No. 2 Braves and No. 1 Dodgers, respectively. This set up an NLCS between two Wild Card teams that were playing their best baseball at the right time.

The Phillies entered the World Series with a 9-2 postseason record while the Astros entered the MLB championship round 7-0. Houston won the World Series and proved they were the most dominant team in baseball after finishing the regular season 106-56.

2023 (1-3)

This was the year that one could make a strong argument that earning an LDS bye wasn’t necessarily an advantage. The Braves (104-58) and Orioles (101-61) were the No. 1 seeds, but neither advanced to the League Championship Series. The O’s were swept by the Rangers, who went on to win the World Series, while the Braves were eliminated by the Phillies in four games. 

This was also the same year that the Diamondbacks, the NL’s No. 6 seed, advanced to the WS showdown between two Wild Card teams. This remains the only season under the current format in which neither World Series participant received a first-round bye.

2024 (3-1)

With the Dodgers and Yankees holding the No. 1 seeds, expectations were high that the storied franchises could meet in the World Series. The Dodgers needed five games to get past San Diego, while the Yankees eliminated Kansas City in four. In the American League,  the No. 2 Guardians also advanced as they defeated the Tigers in five games. 

The Phillies, the NL’s No. 2 seed, lost to the Mets, preventing it from being a clean sweep of bye teams advancing to the round of four. 

Was losing to the Mets a rust vs. rest issue, or was it simply familiarity between two National League East rivals? 

Philadelphia narrowly won the regular season series over New York, 7-6. 

The Dodgers and Yankees met in the World Series with L.A. taking it in five games.  

2025 (3-1)

Believe it or not, the defending World Series champion Dodgers missed out on a Wild Card bye. They won the NL West with a 93-69 record that was only good enough to land the No. 3 seed behind the Brewers (97-65) and Phillies (96-66). Despite the road back to the championship being two games longer, L.A. eliminated the Reds, Phillies, and Brewers as they successfully defended their NL crown.

On the AL side, the bye teams fared just fine, as the No. 1 Blue Jays and No. 2 Mariners both won their Division Series. It set up a highly competitive ALCS that Toronto took in seven games. However, the team from the North fell just short of winning it all as L.A. took the World Series, 4-3.

The Case Against the Bye: Does Rust Matter?

The 2023 postseason is what really fueled this debate. If we eliminate the bye teams going 1-3, their overall record improves to 8-4 and a .666 win percentage. The individual division series results painted a picture of the top teams being rusty, as two of the teams got swept out of the divisional round.

The Dodgers' bat went cold over the bye as Arizona won the three games by a combined 19-6 score. Texas outscored Baltimore 21-11. In the three Philadelphia wins, Phillies pitching held the Braves offense to three total runs. 

The Case for the Bye

Multiple days off and MLB are typically words we don’t hear in the same sentence due to the 162-game regular season. One of the biggest advantages to earning a bye is managers can have a Tarik Skubal or Drew Rasmussen ready for Game 1 of the Division Series versus having to wait until Game 3 or 4 because they appeared in a must win Wild Card game. 

 There are no worries about the bullpen being ready to go since all of the arms are fresh from five days off. The opponent is in a completely different boat, being that they’ve already played a minimum of two playoff games. With the divisional round being a best-of-five format, gaining the early series advantage is key. 

So Does the Bye Actually Help?

Bye teams holding a slight 9-7 advantage over four seasons doesn’t overwhelmingly support that the five-day break creates a huge advantage for the bye teams. Sometimes those great sports upsets remain hot topics years after they happen.

However, teams that earn the byes have clear advantages over Wild Card teams. Winning a best-of-five LDS series becomes much more challenging when the pitching staff is on short rest. The numbers from the last four postseasons show that it’s not a major advantage, but it’s definitely an important one when winning the World Series is the ultimate goal.